Just after 1 AM, a wave of false claims flooded online, including from international accounts. Dutch influencers, pro-Russian and English-language networks framed the fire as an attack, supposedly carried out by “Muslim networks” intent on burning Christian Europe to the ground. “An attack.”
The great replacement narrative surfaced almost immediately. The Justice for Prosperity foundation mapped the timeline. It shows how quickly suspicion can spread like wildfire, before there is any clarity about cause or context.
Within minutes of the fire, the first false posts appeared. That figure quickly climbed to around 350 posts per hour.
In about an hour after the fire, the first posts explicitly blamed Muslims. Dutch and international accounts acted as the initial drivers pushing the narrative toward wider circulation.
Less than three minutes later, the hashtag ‘omvolking’ (great replacement) appeared.
Before noon, more than 200 posts had already linked the Vondel Church fire to Muslims or anti-Christian terrorism. From abroad as well. Some posts claimed, without a shred of evidence, that Muslims were burning down “our churches.” Incidents in other countries were cited as part of an apparently Europe-wide anti-Christian conspiracy.
This post received over 46,000 views a week later.
The snowball became an avalanche when far-right British influencer Tommy Robinson weighed in around midday: over 1 million views. Robinson spoke openly of gangs of intruders who had allegedly set fire to “an iconic European” church. The post ended with the kicker “mass deportations 2026.”
At 2 PM, radical-right influencer Eva Vlaardingerbroek appeared on X with a video in which she spoke of “acts of war” by “youth gangs that in 99.9% of cases consist of Muslims.” The fact that the fire was not recognised as an act of war was, of course, because the local residents are all “champagne socialists” who simply refuse to see it. Within one week, Vlaardingerbroek’s post had been viewed 1.2 million times.
Then came the familiar reflex: pro-Kremlin propaganda channels amplified the narrative almost immediately. Just as after the Malieveld riots, JfP observed how these networks exploit unrest, amplify disinformation and fuel polarisation. See the example below.
JfP’s analysis shows that 20% of posts on X on 1 or 2 January linked the Vondel Church fire to Muslims. Of the ten most-viewed posts, seven pointed to migrants as scapegoats. A closer look at several of those posts shows how quickly the conspiracy thinking spread and merged with broader theories about attacks on Christian Europe and Christian symbols.
On the night of 31 December into 1 January, Dutch fire services responded to no fewer than 4,200 call-outs. At least 300 involved a building fire (NIPV, Core Figures New Year’s Fires 2025). Yet just one was enough to ignite a blaze of anti-Muslim hatred on X, and to drive us further apart. The material damage from New Year’s festivities runs into the millions. The societal damage caused by this kind of disinformation is almost impossible to quantify.
At the time of writing, the cause of the Vondel Church fire has not yet been established. But the fact that fire services and police were still investigating and therefore unable to make a statement was, within half a day, enough for Vlaardingerbroek to suggest a cover-up was underway. It shows how diligence can be turned against itself, weaponised to sow doubt by those who profit from disinformation and polarisation.
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